Recent publications and popular-press writing on wise reasoning, forecasting, cultural change, and AI in social science. Below are selected articles in journals such as Science, Nature Human Behaviour, and Psychological Science, plus essays and commentary for Scientific American, The Conversation, and Aeon. See all publications on my Google Scholar.
Popular Press
2024
Wisdom is a virtue, but how do we judge if someone has it?
Psyche
2023
Beyond the hype: How AI could change the game for social science research.
The Conversation
[link]
2023
The limits of expert judgment: Lessons from social science forecasting during the pandemic.
The Conversation
[link]
2021
It’s not stress that’s killing us, it’s hate: Maybe mindfulness can help.
The Conversation
[link]
2017
Can we foresee the future? Explaining and predicting cultural change.
SPSP Character & Context.
[link]
Recent Publications
Smith, J. A., Wegenschimmel, N., Dorfman, A., & Grossmann, I.
2025
Wisdom reconsidered: A dynamic network account of metacognition and complex thought.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
[PsyArXiv]
Grossmann, I., & Johnson, S. G. B.
2025
Cultivating wisdom through metacognition: A new frontier in decision-making under radical uncertainty.
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition
[link]
Grossmann, I., Kachhiyapatel, N., Meyers, E. A., Zhang, H., & Eibach, R. P.
2025
The reasonable, the rational, and the good: On folk theories of deliberate sound judgment.
Open Mind
[PsyArXiv]
Rudnev, M., Barrett, H. C., Buckwalter, W., Machery, E., Stich, S., … & Grossmann, I.
2024
Dimensions of wisdom perception across twelve countries on five continents.
Nature Communications
[link]
Grossmann, I., Varnum, M. E. W., Hutcherson, C., & Mandel, D. R.
2024
When expert predictions fail.
Trends in Cognitive Sciences
[link]
Grossmann, I., & Eibach, R. P.
2024
Meta-judgment: Meta-theories and beliefs about good judgment across societies.
Current Directions in Psychological Science
[link]
Elnakouri, A., Huynh, A. C., & Grossmann, I.
2024
Explaining contentious political issues promotes open-minded thinking.
Cognition
[link]
Grossmann, I., Feinberg, M., Parker, D. C., Christakis, N., Tetlock, P. E. & Cunningham, W. A.
2023
AI and the transformation of social science research.
Science
[link]
Forecasting Collaborative.
2023
Insights into accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change.
Nature Human Behaviour
[link]
Hutcherson, C., Sharpinskyi, C., Varnum, M. E. W., Rotella, A. M., Wormley, A., Tay, L., & Grossmann, I.
2023
On the accuracy, media representation, and public perception of psychological scientists’ judgments of societal change
American Psychologist
[PsyArXiv]
Porter, T., Elnakouri, A., Meyers, E. A., Shibayama, T., Jayawickreme, E. & Grossmann, I.
2022
Predictors and Consequences of Intellectual Humility
Nature Reviews Psychology
[link]
Grossmann, I., Eibach, R. P., Koyama, J., & Sahi, Q.
2020
Folk standards of sound judgment: Rationality versus reasonableness.
Science Advances.
[link]
Grossmann, I., Weststrate, N. M., Ardelt, M., Brienza, J. P., Dong, M., Ferrari, M., Fournier, M. A., Hu, C. S., Nusbaum, H. C. & Vervaeke, J.
2020
The science of wisdom in a polarized world: Knowns and unknowns.
Psychological Inquiry.
[PsyArXiv]