Forecasting

Forecasts are central to science. My group runs collaborative projects that test how well experts, superforecasters, and the public anticipate social change, and why some forecasts succeed while others fail.

I founded the Social Science Forecasting Collaborative to collect ex ante predictions on societally important questions (including pandemic outcomes) with opportunities to update as new data arrive. Our studies examine forecast accuracy, media representation, and how people reason about societal change.

I co-lead the Futurescape Project, a longitudinal tournament that brings together experts, superforecasters, and the public to track forecasts about key debates on human welfare. Explore our Google Arts & Culture exhibit, Visions of the Future.

I also founded the World After COVID project,  a video time-capsule of interviews with leading behavioral and social scientists, launched in June 2020, documenting their forecasts and practical advice for navigating the changes ahead.

 

References

Grossmann, I., Varnum, M. E. W., Hutcherson, C., & Mandel, D. R. (2024). When expert predictions fail. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 28(2), 113-123. [link]
The Forecasing Collaborative (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 484–501 [link]
Hutcherson, C., Sharpinskyi, C., Varnum, M. E. W., Rotella, A. M., Wormley, A., Tay, L., & Grossmann, I. (2023). On the accuracy, media representation, and public perception of psychological scientists’ judgments of societal change. American Psychologist. [link]
Grossmann, I., Hutcherson, C., & Varnum, M, E, W. (2023). The limits of expert judgment: Lessons from social science forecasting during the pandemic. The Conversation [link]

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