Forecasting

Making predictions is one of the hallmarks of science, but the extent to which behavioral and social scientists, and the public can accurately predict societal phenomena and what processes guide their reasoning is unknown. I founded the Social Science Forecasting Collaborative to understand processes guiding scientists’ ex ante forecasts for phenomena of broad societal relevance and which have been theoretically linked to pathogen threat. In a forecasting tournament, participants used standardized data to predict pandemic-related outcomes in the US, with opportunities to update forecasts as new data emerged.

Additionally, the Futurescape Project tracks and evaluates forecasts of societal change, aiming to better understand human welfare’s future. This initiative brings together experts, superforecasters, and everyday people in a longitudinal forecasting tournament, focusing on key debates over societal change.

 

References

Grossmann, I., Varnum, M. E. W., Hutcherson, C., & Mandel, D. R. (2024). When expert predictions fail. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 28(2), 113-123. [link]
The Forecasing Collaborative (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 484–501 [link]
Hutcherson, C., Sharpinskyi, C., Varnum, M. E. W., Rotella, A. M., Wormley, A., Tay, L., & Grossmann, I. (2023). On the accuracy, media representation, and public perception of psychological scientists’ judgments of societal change. American Psychologist. [link]
Grossmann, I., Hutcherson, C., & Varnum, M, E, W. (2023). The limits of expert judgment: Lessons from social science forecasting during the pandemic. The Conversation [link]

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